More and more cantons are regulating heating system replacements according to the MuKEn guidelines. As a result, monovalent systems, especially heat pumps, are increasing significantly. This is shown by a recent data analysis commissioned by the Conference of Cantonal Energy Directors.
The revised Lucerne Energy Act has been in effect since January 1, 2019. It regulates the replacement of heating systems in accordance with the current model regulations of the cantons in the energy sector (MuKEn 2014). Specifically, this means that anyone wishing to replace an oil or gas heating system with another fossil fuel heating system must cover 10 percent of their energy needs from renewable sources. According to the standard solutions of the MuKEn, for example, the new oil boiler can be supplemented with a solar thermal system for hot water preparation.
As in other cantons, this requirement was also the subject of heated debate in Lucerne. Nevertheless, the vote in favor of the new law was decisive, with almost 59 percent of the vote. So far, the new energy law has been well received, says Mattias Baumberger, energy specialist at the Lucerne cantonal office for the environment and energy (uwe). "Critical voices are rare. Occasionally we hear that the requirements go too far. However, there is also feedback suggesting that the law could be more ambitious," says Baumberger. For example, regarding heating system replacements, it has been criticized that meeting the GEAK overall energy efficiency class D is sufficient to comply with the legal requirement.
Clear trend
Until the introduction of the new law, replacing fossil fuel heating systems with alternatives was permitted in Lucerne without further requirements. Some installers report that 2018 saw a veritable peak in oil and gas heating installations. But now the tide has turned. This is evidenced by systematically collected data. A newly introduced reporting requirement demands that building owners notify the canton of their chosen energy source when replacing their heating system. Based on this data, the picture is clear. "There is a trend towards heating systems using renewable energy sources, especially heat pumps," reports Mattias Baumberger. Of the approximately 1,100 reported heating system replacements, nearly 1,000 involved one of the eleven MuKEn standard solutions. Of these, monovalent systems—wood-fired heating, heat pumps, and district heating connections—account for over 90 percent.
Conversely, this means that monovalent systems using only renewable energy sources are far more common than combinations of fossil and renewable energy sources (bivalent systems according to the MuKEn standard solutions). The uwe sees two reasons for this: The first is the reduced effort. The previously common one-to-one replacement was simple, says Baumberger: "Presumably, in many cases, alternatives weren't even considered. The new law requires this engagement with renewable energy sources, which often leads to a complete switch."
The second reason is financial. Those who consider the life cycle costs of a heating system, taking into account not only the investment costs but also the energy and maintenance costs, often find that renewable energy sources are more economical. Furthermore, cantonal subsidies have been expanded. Since 2019, the Canton of Lucerne has been subsidizing heat pumps, and since 2020, it has also been subsidizing small wood-burning heating systems. "In addition, fossil fuel heating systems have become more expensive in inefficient buildings because a standard solution must also be implemented," explains Baumberger.
Switzerland-wide trend
What can be observed in the canton of Lucerne also applies to other cantons that have already implemented the MuKEn (Model Regulations for Energy in the Cantons). This is shown by the data analysis "Impact of the MuKEn's Heating System Replacement Regulation on the Choice of Heating Source" (see info box). The analysis was commissioned by the Conference of Cantonal Energy Directors and conducted by the real estate consulting firm Wüest Partner. One of the study's authors is Jörg Schläpfer, Head of Macroeconomics at Wüest Partner.
A total of approximately 40,000 building permit applications submitted between January 2010 and December 2019 were analyzed. Jörg Schläpfer summarizes the findings as follows: "The nationwide trend in Switzerland is moving away from fossil fuel heating systems. The market share of heat pumps is increasing significantly, particularly in those cantons that have already implemented the MuKEn (Model Regulations for Energy in Buildings)."
A look at the nationwide data confirms the impression from Lucerne: Instead of bivalent, MuKEn-compliant heating systems, property owners predominantly opt for monovalent systems using renewable energy sources. "The MuKEn don't prohibit fossil fuel heating systems. However, those who want to keep them have to put in extra effort, while purely renewable heating solutions are simpler," comments Schläpfer. In addition to this regulatory aspect, the political developments of the past year should also be considered: "The climate youth protests have led to a noticeable shift in thinking and even to a tightening of the CO2 law. The political discourse surrounding heating fuels and climate change has prompted many property owners to engage with the various heating systems for the first time." The individual's contribution to climate protection, for example by foregoing oil or gas heating, becomes much more concrete when their own canton implements the MuKEn.
Positive signals
Suissetec, which supported the cantons in developing the Model Regulations for Energy in Buildings (MuKEn), welcomes this development as a contribution to the successful implementation of the energy strategy. "We are convinced that heating systems using renewable energy sources offer many advantages," says Robert Diana, Head of Heating at Suissetec. With the new "Renewable Heating" program, launched by EnergieSchweiz at the beginning of 2020, there is an important tool: "By showing building owners with fossil fuel heating systems good alternatives, we can mitigate the pressure for a direct replacement."
Diana comments on the trend towards implementing monovalent systems with renewable energy sources rather than bivalent MuKEn model solutions as follows: “When developing the MuKEn, the cantons sought a moderate approach to wean end customers away from fossil fuels. In the cantons that have already implemented the MuKEn in their energy legislation, we see a clear preference for renewable energies. Suissetec welcomes this development, as it is an important contribution to a decarbonized building sector.”
Wüest Partner is prepared to expand the analysis, as Jörg Schläpfer explains: “This year, more cantons will implement the MuKEn (Model Regulations for Energy in the Cantons). The data basis will therefore be broader, and the findings can be better quantified. This will allow us to move from exploratory to qualitative statistical analysis and quantify the significant effects.” Mattias Baumberger (uwe Luzern) believes that the implementation of the revised energy laws should cause few problems: “We now have 15 months of experience with the new regulations. The standard solutions are readily implementable. So far, we haven't encountered a single case where none of the eleven standard solutions were feasible.”
